Las Vegas Numbers From The Field: Contradict Broad Media Data.

I have been wondering why there are such negative media reports on cities like Las Vegas, where we have seen increasing competition for the good bank-owned properties as of late. This would indicate that positive numbers would emerge, but the media seems to contradict it. Since I trust my people in the field a whole lot more than blanket reports covering many irrelevant areas where we may not be buying, I wanted to see data reflecting the real picture. Well - our realtor in las vegas, Glenn Evans, just sent me these:

Hi Adiel,

Here’s some of the latest data from Vegas that contradicts what the media is spreading:

Here’s a graph that shows that the number of homes in escrow has now risen, and the number of listings has dropped, to the point where the two are equal. Also, the percentage of REO listings in now down to 19%!

If that’s not enough to show how active the market is, here’s another graph that shows that the number of monthly closings is now at the same point that it was back in the heyday of the market in 2004/2005. Those that don’t believe us when we tell them about all the competition are willfully ignoring the facts:

Regarding prices, here’s the graph of closing price per sq.ft. for the last 10 years. You can see how flat prices have been here for the last 2 ½ years. Plus, we’re currently nearly 40% below the pre run-up prices!! Hardly looks like we’re ripe for another huge drop in prices:

One more item for those who keep saying that there’s another huge wave of foreclosures on the way. This graph shows the number of homes on the market that say they are in some stage of foreclosure (have received a notice of default). The number has dropped dramatically since the beginning of the year. We should be seeing the number of REO’s increase, not decrease if this prediction were true. It looks like these properties have already hit the system long ago. This may be the most interesting of all the graphs.

This is the end of Glenn’s report. It makes perfect sense to me. there are large areas in North las vegas, for example, where we are not buying. It is exactly in these areas that a huge number of foreclosed homes exist. The broad media data obviously includes these areas, as they do many other areas which are quite irrleveant to us and our investors. Glenn’s data is woth its weight in gold to me, the eager and interested buyer.